Catch up on our Autumn Economic Update
Our latest webinar is now available to watch on demand.
Hear from our Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, on the economic outlook, energy price pressures, interest rates and what they could mean for the housing market.
50 minute webinar | Recorded on 21 October 2026
- Tick icon The latest outlook for inflation and Bank Rate.
- Tick icon Energy market disruption and what it could mean for the economy.
- Tick icon The outlook for UK house prices and housing activity.
- Tick icon Buy to let market trends and landlord sentiment.
Watch the recording
Information:
Recorded before the Autumn Budget. This webinar was recorded on Wednesday 21 October, so commentary reflects the economic outlook at that time.
No time to watch?
Here are the key insights from the webinar.
Mortgage rates remain sensitive to the energy and broader economic outlook
Higher swap rates have increased the cost of funding fixed-rate mortgages. If energy pressures ease and expectations for Bank Rate moderate, swap rates are likely to decline, although ongoing geopolitical tensions mean risks remain in both directions.
Interest rate outlook remains uncertain
Markets have priced in Bank Rate rises as energy pressures add to inflation risks. However, the slack evident in the labour market is likely to limit the extent of any policy tightening, particularly if energy pressures ease.
Housing market activity has softened
But in a number of important respects, underlying conditions are more supportive than a couple of years ago, despite the increase in mortgage rates. Affordability has improved markedly due to income growth outpacing house price growth, and credit availability has increased. This should provide a foundation for activity to recover if wider economic pressures ease and consumer confidence improves.
Buy to let faces headwinds, although tenant demand remains strong
Higher borrowing costs and tax and regulatory changes continue to weigh on landlord sentiment and activity. However, robust tenant demand and rental growth continue to provide some support to the sector.
About Robert Gardner
Robert joined Nationwide as Chief Economist in 2010. He and his team provide economic analysis and advice to key decision-makers across the organisation, with a particular focus on the UK economy, housing and savings markets.
About Kim Dickinson
Kim, our Lead Product Manager for Intermediaries, has almost 20 years’ experience in the mortgage industry, with a career largely focused on the intermediary market. Kim and her team lead the development of our intermediary proposition, ensuring we continue to deliver competitive, customer-first offerings informed by insight.
